New national data suggests that GLP‑1 medications—especially semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy—are beginning to make a measurable impact on obesity rates across the United States. For the first time in decades, the trend line is bending in a hopeful direction.
A National Shift in Obesity Trends
Late last week, EPIC Research released two new data trackers analyzing electronic medical records from across the country. Their findings show a dramatic rise in GLP‑1 prescriptions over the past five years, paired with a modest but meaningful decline in obesity rates.
EPIC Research draws from COSMOS, a massive dataset built in collaboration with health systems using Epic’s electronic medical record software. COSMOS includes more than 300 million patient records from thousands of hospitals and clinics in the U.S. and abroad, making it one of the most comprehensive health datasets available.
Using this data, researchers tracked quarterly GLP‑1 prescriptions and body mass index (BMI) trends. The results show a clear shift:
- GLP‑1 prescriptions increased more than fourfold between Q2 2021 and Q1 2026 (from 1,884 to 8,819 prescriptions per 100,000 adults)
- Obesity rates declined from 42% to 41% in the same period
- Among people who had ever taken a GLP‑1, obesity rates dropped even more sharply (from 75% to 69%)
While these numbers represent only the COSMOS dataset—not the entire U.S.—they align closely with other national indicators. The CDC previously estimated that 40% of Americans had obesity between 2021 and 2023. But in late 2024, the agency reported the first decline in adult obesity rates in years. Surveys and insurance data also confirm a rapid rise in GLP‑1 use nationwide.
Why This Matters
GLP‑1 medications have been shown to help people lose weight and reduce the risk of obesity‑related conditions such as type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and certain cancers. Even a small, sustained drop in national obesity rates is significant after decades of steady increases.
Not everyone with obesity is unhealthy, and not everyone wants or needs medication. But for many people, GLP‑1s have become a powerful tool that supports long‑term weight management and improves overall health outcomes.
Barriers and the Road Ahead
Despite their growing popularity, GLP‑1 medications are still out of reach for many Americans:
- Only 12% of U.S. adults are currently taking a GLP‑1
- Another 6% have stopped, often due to side effects, cost, or lack of insurance coverage
- Out‑of‑pocket prices have dropped but can still reach hundreds of dollars per month
- Cheaper generic versions of semaglutide have been approved in countries like Canada and India, but they may take five years or more to reach the U.S.
These barriers mean that many people who could benefit from GLP‑1 therapy still cannot access it.
A Glimpse Into the Future
The future of obesity in America will depend on multiple factors: access to medication, insurance coverage, improved drug formulations, and personal choice. GLP‑1s are not a universal solution, and they are not appropriate for everyone. But the early data is promising.
For the first time, widespread use of these medications may be contributing to a nationwide decline in obesity rates. If adoption continues to grow—and if more affordable versions become available—obesity could become far less common in the years ahead.
The tide may finally be turning.